Archive for August, 2008

Aug 31 2008

Governor Sarah Palin as VP?

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These are talking points from the Huffington Post article.

The vice president is a heartbeat away from becoming president, so to choose someone with not one hour’s worth of experience on national issues is a dangerous choice. – Barbara Boxer

The supporting facts are wrong and self-evident. Folks, there is a huge difference between a legislator and an executive. This election is for an executive position. Let’s remember that fact as we talk about relative experience. When talking about Obama’s experience, or lack thereof, we are talking about any level of office, even the Senate. He has never held any executive position before in his life! For that matter, neither has Mc Cain1. On the other hand, Palin served a full term as Mayor and two years as Governor. That’s scads more experience than any other candidate on either ticket!

Today, John McCain put the former mayor of a town of 9,000 with zero foreign policy experience a heartbeat away from the presidency. – Barack Obama Campaign Spokesman Bill Burton.

Please, will someone please tell me how managing Russian and Japanese cooperation, in the Arctic Sea, is equivalent to zero foreign policy experience? Not to mention, having to deal with Canada on a day-to-day basis. Clearly, someone needs to introduce Bill Burton to a map.

From Kevin Grandia’s article:

The theoretical realization that human activities could have a global discernible effect on the atmosphere came during the 19th century, and the first conclusive measurements of atmospheric change were made during the last half of the 20th century. – National Academy of Science

I am also on record of disagreement, with the anthropogenic global warming camp. Just because it’s the National Academy of Science doesn’t mean that their statements all have scientific validity. No one has yet proven, scientifically, anthropogenic global warming. Yes, the climate is definitely warming up. Yes, we are exiting the current Ice Age. But, if there were no humans on the planet, that would be happening anyway2 .

Then there is the Freethinkers article which I would rather answer here and not there;

She’s solidly in line with John McCain’s “Big Oil first” energy policy. She’s pushed hard for more oil drilling and says renewables won’t be ready for years. She also sued the Bush administration for listing polar bears as an endangered species—she was worried it would interfere with more oil drilling in Alaska. – Freethinking.

First of all, it’s a fallacy to charge Mc Cain to be favorable to Big Oil. Second of all, for those who have been reading my latest Econ and oil reports, we need to expand our oil production capacity, globally. This means more drilling, pumping, and refining. It is a fact that we are only using one million barrels of oil less than global maximum capacity and next year will see a definite shortfall, with a 10-20 year development cycle. This is why Oil went to $150 per barrel. We have to increase production somewhere and offshore is currently the only place that we know there is plentiful oil.

We are 20 to 30 years away from usable renewable energy sources. Yes, the Bush administration got us here by allowing profit-taking without new development. But the eco-nazis helped by blocking exploration and development at every turn possible, using any means and excuse possible.

Palin thinks creationism should be taught in public schools.

This conflicts with the statement in the same article,

In an interview Thursday, Palin said she meant only to say that discussion of alternative views should be allowed to arise in Alaska classrooms:

“I don’t think there should be a prohibition against debate if it comes up in class. It doesn’t have to be part of the curriculum.”

She added that, if elected, she would not push the state Board of Education to add such creation-based alternatives to the state’s required curriculum.

Members of the state school board, which sets minimum requirements, are appointed by the governor and confirmed by the Legislature.

“I won’t have religion as a litmus test, or anybody’s personal opinion on evolution or creationism,” Palin said.

Palin has occasionally discussed her lifelong Christian faith during the governor’s race but said teaching creationism is nothing she has campaigned about or even given much thought to.

That poster obviously has a reading and comprehension problem. As far as I’m concerned, Palin can believe in big pink dinosaurs from Pluto, as long as she does her job and doesn’t advocate anyone else believing it3 .

From the Freethinker:

She’s solidly in line with John McCain’s “Big Oil first” energy policy. She’s pushed hard for more oil drilling and says renewables won’t be ready for years. She also sued the Bush administration for listing polar bears as an endangered species—she was worried it would interfere with more oil drilling in Alaska.

What the article actually said;

The polar bear should be removed from the endangered species list because its protected status will hamper drilling for oil and gas in Alaska, the state’s Republican Governor has demanded.

Governor of Alaska – a state whose residents overwhelmingly support oil exploration – is arguing that the polar bear does not need added protection, and the bear populations have increased significantly over the past 30 years because of conservation.

Sarah Palin, Buchananite?

“Pat Buchanan brought his conservative message of a smaller government and an America First foreign policy to Fairbanks and Wasilla on Friday as he continued a campaign swing through Alaska. Buchanan’s strong message championing states rights resonated with the roughly 85 people gathered for an Interior Republican luncheon in Fairbanks. … Among those sporting Buchanan buttons were Wasilla Mayor Sarah Palin and state Sen. Jerry Ward, R-Anchorage.”

UPDATE: James Antle at the American Spectator rightly points out that while Buchanan considered a 1988 run for the presidency he didn’t pursue it. My bad.

That just plain comes down to name-calling. A lot of Republicans supported Buchanan before he was ousted. He had both the money and the power back then. Note that Christopher Hayes can’t keep his own facts straight.

Palin is strongly anti-choice, opposing abortion even in the case of rape or incest.

 

Palin, a member of the anti-choice group Feminists for Life, said during her campaign for governor that she is opposed to abortion, even in cases of rape or incest. [Juneau Empire, "Abortion Draws Clear Divide in State Races," accessed 8/29/08 and Anchorage Daily News, "Governor’s Race: Top contenders meet one last time to debate," 11/03/06.]

 

NARAL Pro-Choice America, which tracks all choice-related votes in Congress and ranks all 50 states on the status of women’s reproductive rights, classifies Sarah Palin as anti-choice.

This is the one place that Palin worries me. But as I am pro-choice, I have to allow her, her choice.

After this the freethinker just gets silly and demagoguery so, I’ll stop now.

 

Update: This may appear to be a pro-Palin article, it isn’t. However, I have always believed that demagoguery is wrong and tends to bias against the argument of the demagogue. This is more of an anti-demagoguery argument than a pro-Palin argument. If you are going to critique someone then do it on the real issues and with real substantive argument. Most of what I’ve been seeing, anti-Palin, are ad hominem arguments, based on her religious views. Such arguments are prime fascia unconstitutional, or straight on demagoguery.

Notes:

  1. But Mc Cain, at least, has the benefit of multiple decades as a Senator []
  2. I was actually preparing another global warming article with new evidence for a volcanic culprit when this news about Palin hit my screens. []
  3. This may turn out to be a naive hope on my part, as more of her record appears. []

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Aug 31 2008

Political Judo

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I was astounded yesterday as the old wardog, John Mc Cain, handed us all a surprise of the first water, by announcing Governor Sarah Palin, as the Vice-Presidential partner, in is bid to become President of the US. Even rabid Democrats have to admit that this is a stroke of both strategic and tactical genius. In one fell swoop, it answers all of Mc Cain’s critics.

  1. It certainly proves Mc Cain’s flexibility and and his ability to adapt quickly in new and surprising ways.
  2. He is better than Obama at thinking out of the box.

John Mc Cain has just taken Obama’s playbook and tossed it in the fire. It’s worthless now:

  1. Can’t use Class warfare against Palin, she’s not rich and neither is her husband. They’re both just working stiffs.
  2. Palin is rabidly against Big Oil1.
  3. Her husband is an Inuit2.
  4. Has Elliot Ness like untouchability.
  5. Has religious beliefs but practices secularism.
  6. Believes in non-anthropogenic global warming.
  7. Is pro-ecology.

Like John Mc Cain, she is an old-school Republican and not a Religious-Right fascist. Most definitely, not a Bushivist.

All of the tactics that Barack Obama has been using until now are suddenly worthless and may even backfire. The next few months are going to be interesting. Barack Obama: You have been demanding that Mc Cain re-invent himself for months now. Now that he has, it is time for you to re-invent yourself in response. Mc Cain has just shown, with one move, where experience tells, and there is a lot more where that came from. Don’t ever count an old wardog out unless you can see the broken body and it’s not moving.

Notes:

  1. Neither her, or her husband, is a large investor, anywhere []
  2. An aboriginal/native American, for the anally politically correct []

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Aug 31 2008

Anti Abortion?

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Human reproduction has always been exceptionally problematic both ethically and biologically.

  1. The number of wombs in a human organization has historically been a tactical issue and continues to be. This results in the male dominance associated with medieval cultures, including Hindu, Christianity, and Islam. Socio-politically, he with the most population increases their chances or gaining a tactical advantage. The one way to gain a population advantage is to control the number of wombs, and the women attached to them, and to maximize their productivity. This often results in rape, forced pregnancy, and associated medical problems related to excessive child bearing1.
  2. Somewhat related to the previous issue, rape and sexual assault result in unwanted pregnancies about 27% of the time. Ethical issues, regarding killing of the foetus, make abortions problematic, especially in highly religious countries, resulting in forcing unwanted children, at the sole expense of the mother2.

The Roe v Wade decision was fair and Constitutional. Read the decision again and you’ll find that it was made on Constitutional grounds. Short of an amendment, it cannot be reversed and that’s the way it should be.

Notes:

  1. Note that, these old practices are some of the main reasons that we have over-population at the moment. Countries where women control their own bodies, have falling birth-rates. []
  2. Who becomes a quadruple victim; 1. For the rape and assault. 2. Being raped again by the legal system. 3. Being forced to raise an unwanted child without any assistance. 4. Being socially ostracized for having a child out of wedlock. []

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Aug 18 2008

What happened to the US Constitution?

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I refer, of course, to Ellen Nakashima’s article, of 1Aug08, Laptops may be detained at border. However, she completely misses the point. It is most definitely NOT a privacy issue.

Federal agents may take a traveler’s laptop computer or other electronic device to an off-site location for an unspecified period of time without any suspicion of wrongdoing, as part of border search policies the Department of Homeland Security recently disclosed.

Privacy takes a distant back seat to the real issue;

The right of the people to be secure in their persons, houses, papers, and effects, against unreasonable searches and seizures, shall not be violated, and no warrants shall issue, but upon probable cause, supported by oath or affirmation, and particularly describing the place to be searched, and the persons or things to be seized.

That is the real issue! Federal employees are bound by this, the Supreme Law of the land, more than by any other law. Even Bush is bound by it. The quote is, of course, a verbatim copy of the Fourth Amendment of the US Constitution.1

The sad part is that even Ellen passes over the felonious Constitutional Rights violation, in order to get upset at the relatively minor tort of the privacy issue2 . Are Americans becoming inured towards having their rights routinely violated? What breed of sheeple have you all become over there that such a basic right can be violated without much comment?

The policies state that officers may “detain” laptops “for a reasonable period of time” to “review and analyze information.” This may take place “absent individualized suspicion.”

The policies cover “any device capable of storing information in digital or analog form,” including hard drives, flash drives, cellphones, iPods, pagers, beepers, and video and audio tapes. They also cover “all papers and other written documentation,” including books, pamphlets and “written materials commonly referred to as ‘pocket trash’ or ‘pocket litter.’ “

Note that there is one important clause;

Reasonable measures must be taken to protect business information and attorney-client privileged material, the policies say, but there is no specific mention of the handling of personal data such as medical and financial records.

This was obviously put there as a sop to corporations that have real attorneys, powered by real money, that are able to make this a Supreme Court issue. These policies carefully pick on the average Joe Blow that doesn’t have the $20M to take this to the Supremes3 .

Customs Deputy Commissioner Jayson P. Ahern said the efforts “do not infringe on Americans’ privacy.” In a statement submitted to Feingold for a June hearing on the issue, he noted that the executive branch has long had “plenary authority to conduct routine searches and seizures at the border without probable cause or a warrant” to prevent drugs and other contraband from entering the country.

Ah yes, the War on Drugs, where Constitutional Rights are trampled on a daily basis.

Homeland Security Secretary Michael Chertoff wrote in an opinion piece published last month in USA Today that “the most dangerous contraband is often contained in laptop computers or other electronic devices.” Searches have uncovered “violent jihadist materials” as well as images of child pornography, he wrote.

This guy doesn’t even understand the First Amendment, let alone the Fourth. Note that, Jihadist materials are covered by the First Amendment. Also note the use of the child pornography red-herring. All this to justify what is a serious Constitutional breach by an agency of the US Feral Government of Amerika4 .

They’re saying they can rifle through all the information in a traveler’s laptop without having a smidgen of evidence that the traveler is breaking the law,” said Greg Nojeim, senior counsel at the Center for Democracy and Technology. Notably, he said, the policies “don’t establish any criteria for whose computer can be searched.”

Which also distracts from the main point. He touches it but fails to realize just what the real impact is of what he is saying.

It gets even better, the judiciary, who sets themselves up as Guardians of the US Constitution, goes ahead and approves it!

In April, the U.S. Court of Appeals for the 9th Circuit in San Francisco upheld the government’s power to conduct searches of an international traveler’s laptop without suspicion of wrongdoing. The Customs policy can be viewed at: http://www.cbp.gov/linkhandler/cgov/travel/admissability/search_authority.ctt/search_authority.pdf.

The Department of Homeland Security (DHS) is clearly a rogue agency of a Rogue Government5

Amerika6 , the land of the free and the home of the brave. Yeah, right.

Notes:

  1. Taking a slightly closer look; There appears to be some wiggle room in the term unreasonable. However, the attached clause goes on to state, unambiguously, what constitutes a reasonable search. Ergo, they must have a warrant and to obtain that, they must have probable cause, such as actual suspicion of wrongdoing. Anything less is unreasonable and therefore illegal (Unconstitutional). []
  2. There would not be a privacy issue if they can’t confiscate stuff in the first place. []
  3. My disparaging name for the Supreme Court. []
  4. Yet another of my disparaging names. Not a spelling error or typo. []
  5. A Rogue Government is one that does not follow its own laws. For the US, the administration that routinely violates the US Constitution, the Supreme Law of the Land, with impunity is, by definition, a Rogue Government. []
  6. The proper spelling of the fascist feral government of George Walker Bush. []

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Aug 17 2008

We did it!

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Last Tuesday, SG and I got married. It was a small and dignified civil ceremony in Morges, Switzerland. The ceremony itself included eleven people. We got married in an older building1.

After the ceremony, we had drinks at her father’s place, in Coppet, Switzerland, followed by a lunch at La Truite, in Divonne, France. The main course was Steelhead (Salmon trout, to those not from the US Westcoast), with crawdad as the entrée (appetizer, to my fellow Americans2 ) and it was wonderful.

Of course, it wouldn’t be a proper wedding party if there were no wine spilt and my wife’s witness performed the duty admirably.

The days following the wedding were hectic and I am now officially registered, in Nyon, as an immigrant3 , married to a Swiss.

Notes:

  1. Most of Europe redefines the term older building, for Americans. It was built a few centuries before North America was even discovered. Morges was founded in 1286. Nyon, where we live, is even older and the newer Art Deco building we live in was built in 1937. For the historically challenged; Columbus didn’t sail until 1492. []
  2. An entrée is NOT the main course, even Brits know better. []
  3. For the second time in my life, since leaving The Netherlands []

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Aug 08 2008

Lest anyone thinks that I’ve completely lost it …

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For the following discussion;

1) US Economic references (BBC).1

2) Freddie Mac in trouble.2

3) Rising US Foreclosure rate.

4) Housing rescue Bill.

5) Inflation makes its appearance on stage.

6) Fannie Mae posts huge losses.

 

It’s bad when even the Brits see this

At the root of the problems in the US economy is the collapse of the housing market as foreclosed properties and unsold new build homes flood the market.

Nationwide, US house prices are dropping for the first time since the Great Depression, and the rate of contraction is still accelerating.

And with people unable to borrow more against the value of their homes, it also has an impact on the real economy.

As a direct result, Foreclosures are on the rise. There is hope but it’s not enough.

Many analysts now believe that the central bank may have to leave borrowing costs on hold, or even increase them, as it tries to steer a faltering economy through turbulent times.

At the same time as inflationary pressures are rising, the US faces a severe housing slump, a credit crunch and financial market turmoil stemming from the collapse of the sub-prime mortgage market.

According to minutes of the Fed’s interest rate meeting in June, policymakers believed “the next change in the stance of policy could well be an increase” due to “upside risks to inflation and inflation expectations”.

This is the dilemma that I pointed out yesterday. What these guys completely miss is the ARM issues and its direct connection to the Fed rate. There is no one, at any level, calling for the abolishment of ARMs, not Bernanke, not Paulson, not any policy maker anywhere.

There is yet another issue, Fanny Mae and Freddie Mac are posting large losses. No one knows how big those losses are going to be until homeowners start defaulting on their mortgages. What’s cheaper than bailing out those two is to freeze ARMs3.

Notes:

  1. Pay extra attention to the US House price chart. []
  2. Housing market deflation []
  3. decouple them from the Fed rate []

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Aug 08 2008

Morgan Freeman was correct

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He slammed the Black History month festivities and with good cause.

In a US TV interview, Freeman said the only way to end racism was to “stop talking about it”.

The 68-year-old called for an end to the use of the words “black” and “white”.

He said: “I am going to stop calling you a white man and I’m going to ask you to stop calling me a black man.

The same can be said for the term People of color1 , which is not just a slur against Negroes but everyone who has a bit of extra melanin in their skin.

The color bar will only disappear when everyone stops seeing color. Whites, Blacks, Browns, Reds, and Yellows need to stop identifying themselves as Whites, Blacks, Browns, Reds, and Yellows. That’s when we stop having racism and not before.

Notes:

  1. The term People of color, was a term invented by the same numbskulls that came up with Ebonics. That is, the Oakland School District, in collaboration with the air-heads in Cal Berkeley. Oh yes, the culprits happened to be Black. []

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Aug 07 2008

Econ: ECB also stands pat.

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This is in spite of headline inflation in the Euro Zone. I am sure that mister Trichet would rather be raising rates but Europe has been taking huge hits from the US Credit Crunch. In addition, the recent Oil Price Bubble has also been hitting the economy.

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Aug 07 2008

Econ: The Fed stands pat!

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The Fed decides to not change the rates. Of course, they really don’t have a choice.

In Dec2004, in this article, I said this;

Even if those folks get magically reemployed tomorrow, their debt is still a hidden load on the economy and they will get squeezed by the climbing rates. Many may decide to forego the pay-back and chose to go bankrupt instead. Combined with those that will be forced to do the same, at about the same time, this will flood the housing market and cause the Real Estate bubble to finally burst. Remember that higher rates will also make it more difficult to find buyers. The Roach isn’t wrong there.

Note that this was almost 4 years ago when I successfully called the what we now call the Credit Crunch, which actually started to hit in the Spring of 2006, when I wrote this, in this article.

Think again, just recently I wrote about the sort of economic vice jaws that are slowly closing on the American economy. This is going to get the folks on ARMs first but it’ll get the fixed-rate folks later and as well. You see, the rising FED rates will pinch the ARM folks hard enough that they’ll have to liquidate or be liquidated, all because of the falling buck, and that’s all because of the trade and budget deficits. They will blame it on inflation but inflation fear has little to do with it, unless you count the huge inflation that’ll be caused by the Fed government not being able to fund it’s deficits. As the RE bubble bursts, in 2007, millions will lose billions and many of those millions were counting on their home equity for their retirement. This is the equity that will escape when the bubble finally does burst. Ten years downstream, they’ll be lucky to break even on their house because it’ll take 5-10 years just to work through the excess RE inventory. They might break even, but they are sure not going to profit like they thought they would. This’ll be many times worse than the dot-com crash.

There are times when I don’t want to be right. In Mar 2007, things were starting to look really tight;

The falling buck, rising rates, and a weak jobs market all contributed and continue to contribute. The first two items helped uncover the rocks and shoals. The jobs market is the leak in the hull. Everyone has been trying to keep the econ ship away from the rocks. Tighten the housing market (let the inventory grow) and it’s like losing your rudder with an on-shore wind.
Unlike the market mavens, I don’t think that this is temporary. I’ve been dreading this day for a long time. I also knew that once it happened, it is gonna be sad. This is going to trigger bankruptcies. How bad this gets will remain to be seen.

Indeed, this problem is proving extremely intractable. With inflation now looming it’s sails on the horizon, the FED really wants to raise rates but there are still too many ARMs and Option ARMs out there. There is definitely a link between the rates and the payments on ARMs. The Fed can’t really do much raising without forcing huge swaths of people into foreclosure, exacerbating the excess housing inventory problem, and driving house prices even lower. Before the Fed can raise rates at all, those ARMS need to be converted to fixed-rate contracts. That might require an act of Congress and the direct consequence may be the failure of more banks. The Congress needs to freeze rates at wherever they are now and decouple the whole lot from the Fed rate. Only then can the Fed raise rates to forestall inflation. As I show above, it’s the Fed rate increases that uncovered this Credit Crunch in the first place.

As I write this, I’m waiting for the ECB rates info.

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Aug 02 2008

This guy is bringing up some interesting issues

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This article explains how far some will go in order to send you their ads. You can go there for the full explanation, Michael Kassner does a pretty good job of that1 From a security perspective, it’s a man-in-the-middle attack. I should note that British Telecom tried this in the UK and were held accountable for it. They were also told to stop doing it.

I’m not sure I want a business entity tracking my every move on the Internet. My government, sure that’s a different story2 . They aren’t doing it for monetary gain; they are protecting me.

That’s where I have a problem, a huge problem. It’s right up there with wire-tapping, only it’s the Internet version. I don’t want ANYONE intercepting and redirecting my traffic.

Also, I suspect that this business model will place the advertising world in some sort of turmoil. For instance, who gets to decide what ads are displayed when I go to Techrepublic.com? TechRepublic or someone paying my ISP?

I also run Websites and I have friends and clients that run Websites. They depend on Ad revenue for their existence. This basically amounts to theft. They are stealing ad revenue from those sites and Ad companies like ProjectWonderful and AdSense3. There is no question about who has the right to place ads on a particular site. It is the owner of the site! Phorm and NebuAd are hijacking a site’s traffic and Ad revenue and that should be as illegal as theft and burglary.

There are options that you can use to avoid behavioral targeting cookies and DPI scrutiny. Encrypted tunnels through your ISP disallow the installation of behavioral targeting cookies. Also using VPNs, whether they are IPsec, L2TP, or SSL, will negate any effort by DPI to decipher the encrypted traffic. … There are not a whole lot of options, but that’s because behavioral targeting applications are being placed only one hop away from your network perimeter.

As a Website operator there is one other solution; start using SSL and make it mandatory! In order to do that and still run Ads, the Website must also run their own Adserver4.

I should note that I have long been an advocate of the All Packets Must BE ENCRYPTED! school.

Notes:

  1. It’s a follow up of his DPI article I wrote about last time. []
  2. My emphasis []
  3. Used by those sites []
  4. There is an Open Source Ad server that will work under IIS-PHP5 []

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